Todays Markets

Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly dropped by 31,000, the first decline in a month, to 473,000. The number of continuing claims dropped by 62,000 to 4.46 million, while those getting extended benefits climbed.




Treasuries Erase Advance as Initial Jobless Claims Drop More Than Forecast. Bond prices are little changed today after yesterday's bond market rally faded as the stock market rallied and in front of the$36 billion sale in five-year notes which were auctioned off at a record low yield of 1.374%, smashing the previous low of 1.54. Tomorrow, GDP revisions for 2Q10 could be key for the markets as the initial report of 2.4% growth in 2Q10 could be revised sharply lower.



MBA: Foreclosures Fall but New Delinquencies Rise. Mortgage delinquency rates declined in the second quarter to 9.85%, from 10.06% in the first quarter. The pace of foreclosures declined as servicers continue to work on mortgage modifications. More than 4 million mortgages are more than 90 days delinquent or in the foreclosure process and many of these homes will be foreclosed on later this year, putting downward pressure on home prices. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process declined last quarter to 4.5% from 4.63% in the first quarter. The pipeline of delinquencies and huge rise in bank owned properties last quarter has aggravated concerns that the critically important housing sector will drag the U.S. economy back into recession.



Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears, and the decline in mortgage rates in recent months appears to be doing little to stimulate demand. Analysts say the big risk to real estate values is that consumers lose any urgency to buy homes because of new concerns that prices will continue to fall.



Is America the next Japan? What are the chances the U.S. will face "Japanification" of the economy with deflation, a bear market for stocks and housing, and relentless recessionary pressure much like Japan's 20 year battle. This would be dismal: Interest rates would remain near 0% through 2020; the economy would grow at an average annual rate of just 1% over the next 20 years; the Dow would drop below 4,000; and home prices would fall an additional 46% by 2030.





Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead

Thursday, August 26

United States

Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous

8:30 AM Jobless Claims 8/21/2010 n/a n/a 464,000

11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey August n/a n/a 3



Friday, August 27

United States

Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous

8:30 AM GDP 2010Q2 2.5% 2.0% 2.7%

10:00 AM University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey August n/a n/a 66.5

10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 8/20/2010 n/a n/a 120.7



Monday, August 30

United States

Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous

8:30 AM Personal Income July n/a n/a 0.4%

9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes June n/a n/a 4.6

10:30 AM Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey August n/a n/a -21.0



Tuesday, August 31

United States

Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous

7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 8/28/2010 n/a n/a 0.6%

8:30 AM ISM - NY Report August n/a n/a 458.9 index

9:45 AM ISM-Chicago August n/a n/a 59.1

10:00 AM The Conference Board Consumer Confidence August n/a n/a 50.4

2:00 PM FOMC Minutes August n/a n/a N/A

5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 8/29/2010 n/a n/a -48





Consensus Estimate Source: Thomson Reuters