QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."There are no constraints on the human mind, no walls around the human spirit, no barriers to our progress except those we ourselves erect."--Ronald Regan
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...We should be especially careful to not erect barriers to our progress just because of a minor setback, like the one we had with last week's Pending Home Sales. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) index of signed contracts on existing homes slipped in January for the second month in a row. But the drop wasn't as bad as expected and, as the NAR's chief economist said: "We should not expect the recovery to be in a straight upward path--it will zig-zag at times."
The latest NAR overall forecast gave an interesting picture of that recovery. Existing home sales should grow 8.1% this year and another 5.2% in 2012, with the median price essentially flat in 2011 before gaining over 3% next year. New home sales are forecast up about 5% this year, then up over 55% for 2012, with the median price up a bit in 2011, then up 3.5% next year. Fannie Mae's latest National Housing Survey reported that the vast majority of people believe housing prices will hold firm in 2011 and that Hispanics, African-Americans and Generation Y (18–34 years old) are more positive than other Americans about homeownership.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Do you know what's the most precious commodity in business? Time! Return calls and e-mails immediately, deliver what clients want sooner than they expect and you'll enhance your competitive edge.
>> Review of Last Week
SQUEAKING HIGHER...Investors who were worried about oil prices hitting two-year highs amidst Libyan turmoil sent stocks down Tuesday. But economic data continued to portray a steady if slow recovery. So stocks shot back up Thursday by enough to put all three indexes ahead for the week, even after dipping a bit on Friday.
Encouraging economic news appeared on all fronts. The ISM Services index, tracking the sector that employs over 85% of our workforce, reached its highest level since 2005. ISM Manufacturing also hit a multi-year high. Meanwhile, inflation measured by Core PCE Prices, was up just 0.1% in January and 0.8% the past year, well within the Fed's acceptable range. Then Friday we had the February Employment Report with 192,000 new jobs overall. The private sector contributed 222,000 jobs, its 12th monthly gain in a row. And the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped again, this time to 8.9%!
For the week, the Dow ended up 0.3%, at 12,170; the S&P 500 was up 0.1%, to 1,321; and the Nasdaq was up 0.1%, ending at 2,785.
Bond prices were hurt by the improving economic data, but went back up as a result of the safe-haven buying driven by continuing tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down slightly for the week, closing at $98.14. Mortgage rates dropped for the third week in a row according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages. But buyers should note that these low rates will not last forever, as the improving employment picture will eventually edge them back up.
DID YOU KNOW?...The median home price is the midpoint price for all homes sold. 50% of selling prices were above it, 50% were below. It is less biased than the average home price, which can be skewed upward by a few high-priced homes.
>> This Week’s Forecast
WHAT'S UP WITH THE CONSUMER?...Frankly, it's a pretty quiet week for economic news, but there are a few significant readings on the state of the consumer at the very end. Friday we see February's Retail Sales reports, which are expected to show continued growth, both with and without auto sales included. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index should show consumer confidence holding pretty steady. Thursday, you'll want to take note of Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, as jobs remain key to the economic and housing market recovery.
Alan R. Felch
214-683-1770
homeloanapproval.com
Monday, March 7, 2011
Monday, February 21, 2011
The Market Week
>> Market Update
Quote of the week... "I've been blamed for just about everything that's wrong with this country."--Elvis Presley
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... We who work in the real estate and mortgage industries know exactly how Elvis felt. The same people who unfairly blamed us totally for the recession now look to us alone for signs the economic recovery has taken hold. They might want to remember the health of the housing market is directly dependent on the health of the jobs market, which is not under our control. In any case, everyone felt better last week when January Housing Starts were UP a surprising 14.6%. Even though starts are down 2.6% from a year ago, this still shows builders are more hopeful going forward. The boost came from multi-family units, though single-family starts were off a mere 1% for the month.
A lot of home buying activity is due to the affordability now out there. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a major bank reported their index shows home affordability in Q4 of 2010 at its highest level in 20 years. Their measure found that 73.9% of the new and existing homes sold in Q4 were affordable to families making the national median income of $64,400.
Business tip of the week... A big part of success is not giving up. Studies show that one trait shared by all very successful people is perseverance. They are persistent, determined, tenacious, pursuing a goal far beyond the point where the average person gets discouraged.
>> Review of Last Week
THE BULLS KEEP CHARGING... It's not like the running of the bulls at Pamplona just yet, but the bulls on Wall Street are definitely picking up steam. We had another weekly gain in the stock market as the three major indexes were up around 1% and the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new two-year highs. The Nasdaq reached a three-year high, just short of its 2007 peak. If the stock markets are a leading indicator of the overall economy, the recovery should pick up steam as the year goes on.
There were worries over rising Chinese interest rates and disruptions in the Middle East, but these were dispelled by the economic reports. The consumer is key to the recovery, so it was good to see retail sales are now UP seven months in a row. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, as year-over-year, the Core Consumer Price Index is now up 1.0%. Core CPI, the Fed's key inflation reading, is still within their target range and observers feel deflation concerns are now put to rest.
In other news, the Empire State Index showed manufacturing continuing to expand. This is great, though the jobs recovery depends on the services sector, where over 85% of the workforce is employed. Fortunately, that sector is expanding at its fastest pace in five years. Let's hope the jobs follow.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.0%, at 12,391; the S&P 500 was also UP 1.0%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.9%, ending at 2,834.
Even with the stock surge, bond prices held on. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, but still tame. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended up 18 basis points for the week, closing at $97.18. Mortgage rates, which had been inching up, fell back a bit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed national average fixed-rate mortgage rates remained near historic lows.
>> This Week’s Forecast
JANUARY HOME SALES, CONSUMER MINDSET, Q4 GDP... Happy Presidents Day! The markets will be closed Monday but then we'll have some important economic reports. January Existing Homes Sales on Wednesday are expected to be a tad off December's pace. The same goes for January New Home Sales on Thursday.
The week begins and ends with readings on the consumer mindset. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence is forecast up for February while Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment should hold steady. January Durable Goods Orders are predicted to be growing again, a sign business is investing in capital equipment and, perhaps next, in jobs. Friday, we get the second estimate of Q4 GDP, expected to be up a bit from the original estimate.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 21 – February 25
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Feb 22 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 67.0 65.6 Moderate
W
Feb 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 5.23M 5.28M Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan 3.0% –2.3% Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 2/19 410K 410K Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 2/12 3.900M 3.911M Moderate
Th
Feb 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 310K 329K Moderate
Th
Feb 24 11:00 Crude Inventories 2/19 NA 0.86M Moderate
F
Feb 25 08:30 GDP – Second Estimate Q4 3.3% 3.2% Moderate
F
Feb 25 08:30 GDP Deflator – Second Estimate Q4 0.3% 0.3% Moderate
F
Feb 25 09:55 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final Feb 75.1 75.1 Moderate
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months You hear a lot more experts now disagreeing with Fed policy, including some Fed members. But Fed Chairman Bernanke seems determined to keep the Funds Rate at its rock bottom level until we see stronger signs of economic growth and jobs recovery. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15 0%–0.25%
Apr 27 0%–0.25%
Jun 22 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15 <1%
Apr 27 <1%
Jun 22 2%
Quote of the week... "I've been blamed for just about everything that's wrong with this country."--Elvis Presley
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... We who work in the real estate and mortgage industries know exactly how Elvis felt. The same people who unfairly blamed us totally for the recession now look to us alone for signs the economic recovery has taken hold. They might want to remember the health of the housing market is directly dependent on the health of the jobs market, which is not under our control. In any case, everyone felt better last week when January Housing Starts were UP a surprising 14.6%. Even though starts are down 2.6% from a year ago, this still shows builders are more hopeful going forward. The boost came from multi-family units, though single-family starts were off a mere 1% for the month.
A lot of home buying activity is due to the affordability now out there. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a major bank reported their index shows home affordability in Q4 of 2010 at its highest level in 20 years. Their measure found that 73.9% of the new and existing homes sold in Q4 were affordable to families making the national median income of $64,400.
Business tip of the week... A big part of success is not giving up. Studies show that one trait shared by all very successful people is perseverance. They are persistent, determined, tenacious, pursuing a goal far beyond the point where the average person gets discouraged.
>> Review of Last Week
THE BULLS KEEP CHARGING... It's not like the running of the bulls at Pamplona just yet, but the bulls on Wall Street are definitely picking up steam. We had another weekly gain in the stock market as the three major indexes were up around 1% and the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new two-year highs. The Nasdaq reached a three-year high, just short of its 2007 peak. If the stock markets are a leading indicator of the overall economy, the recovery should pick up steam as the year goes on.
There were worries over rising Chinese interest rates and disruptions in the Middle East, but these were dispelled by the economic reports. The consumer is key to the recovery, so it was good to see retail sales are now UP seven months in a row. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, as year-over-year, the Core Consumer Price Index is now up 1.0%. Core CPI, the Fed's key inflation reading, is still within their target range and observers feel deflation concerns are now put to rest.
In other news, the Empire State Index showed manufacturing continuing to expand. This is great, though the jobs recovery depends on the services sector, where over 85% of the workforce is employed. Fortunately, that sector is expanding at its fastest pace in five years. Let's hope the jobs follow.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.0%, at 12,391; the S&P 500 was also UP 1.0%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.9%, ending at 2,834.
Even with the stock surge, bond prices held on. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, but still tame. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended up 18 basis points for the week, closing at $97.18. Mortgage rates, which had been inching up, fell back a bit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed national average fixed-rate mortgage rates remained near historic lows.
>> This Week’s Forecast
JANUARY HOME SALES, CONSUMER MINDSET, Q4 GDP... Happy Presidents Day! The markets will be closed Monday but then we'll have some important economic reports. January Existing Homes Sales on Wednesday are expected to be a tad off December's pace. The same goes for January New Home Sales on Thursday.
The week begins and ends with readings on the consumer mindset. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence is forecast up for February while Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment should hold steady. January Durable Goods Orders are predicted to be growing again, a sign business is investing in capital equipment and, perhaps next, in jobs. Friday, we get the second estimate of Q4 GDP, expected to be up a bit from the original estimate.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 21 – February 25
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Feb 22 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 67.0 65.6 Moderate
W
Feb 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 5.23M 5.28M Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan 3.0% –2.3% Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 2/19 410K 410K Moderate
Th
Feb 24 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 2/12 3.900M 3.911M Moderate
Th
Feb 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 310K 329K Moderate
Th
Feb 24 11:00 Crude Inventories 2/19 NA 0.86M Moderate
F
Feb 25 08:30 GDP – Second Estimate Q4 3.3% 3.2% Moderate
F
Feb 25 08:30 GDP Deflator – Second Estimate Q4 0.3% 0.3% Moderate
F
Feb 25 09:55 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final Feb 75.1 75.1 Moderate
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months You hear a lot more experts now disagreeing with Fed policy, including some Fed members. But Fed Chairman Bernanke seems determined to keep the Funds Rate at its rock bottom level until we see stronger signs of economic growth and jobs recovery. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15 0%–0.25%
Apr 27 0%–0.25%
Jun 22 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15 <1%
Apr 27 <1%
Jun 22 2%
Monday, February 14, 2011
Market Update
>> Market Update
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last Thursday the National Association of Realtors (NAR) came through with the encouraging report that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in Q4 of 2010 increased over Q3 in 49 out of 50 states -- a 15.4% rise for the three-month period. However, sales were down 4.78% for the year, to an estimated 4.91 million, from their 5.16 million level the year before. Fueled by the homebuyer tax credit, that higher 2009 sales rate was deemed "unsustainable" in 2010 by the NAR.
Home prices, on the other hand, appear to be stabilizing. The NAR revealed that the national median existing single-family home price in Q4 of 2010 stayed essentially flat versus Q4 a year ago, coming in at $170,600. Here's a good sign that prices are beginning to climb off the bottom: median prices in Q4 of 2010 rose in 78 of 152 metro areas compared to Q4 a year ago. The NAR's chief economist added the pleasant thought, "An improving housing market and job growth will go hand in hand. The housing recovery will mean faster job growth." Let's hope he's right!
>> Review of Last Week
BULLS STILL IN CHARGE... The Wall Street bulls aren't yet on a charge, but they're definitely in charge, as they sent stocks higher for another week. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average stayed above the 12,000 threshold it crossed the prior week, the broadly-based S&P 500 shot up 1.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a 3.1% gain, which would be impressive in any economic environment. Investors are feeling better about the economy, even though last week included some things which certainly would cause economic worry in more bearish settings.
We can start with Egypt, which was all over the news media, but had little visibility to the investment community. Before the market closed Friday, President Mubarek stepped down, as stocks tapered off with a 44-point gain on the day. We also had China increasing its lending rates to slow down inflation and its economy. Here on our shores tech giant Cisco surprised analysts with a disappointing outlook. Their downside guidance came because they see pressure on their profit margins in the coming year.
The Cisco situation was especially interesting in light of the fact that the main impetus for the strongly upside week came from some compelling corporate news. Walt Disney reported upside results that sent its stock to a record high. Coca-Cola met its earnings estimates on very strong volume growth. 3M boosted its quarterly dividend by 5% and told of a $7 billion share repurchase plan. A sparse week of economic indicators was highlighted by December's trade report showing imports UP 12.8% and exports UP 13.7% in the last year. We also had initial jobless claims dropping to 383,000, their lowest level since July 2008, while continuing claims fell to 3.89 million. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed an increase over the prior month.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.5%, at 12,273; the S&P 500 was UP 1.4%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,809.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last Thursday the National Association of Realtors (NAR) came through with the encouraging report that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in Q4 of 2010 increased over Q3 in 49 out of 50 states -- a 15.4% rise for the three-month period. However, sales were down 4.78% for the year, to an estimated 4.91 million, from their 5.16 million level the year before. Fueled by the homebuyer tax credit, that higher 2009 sales rate was deemed "unsustainable" in 2010 by the NAR.
Home prices, on the other hand, appear to be stabilizing. The NAR revealed that the national median existing single-family home price in Q4 of 2010 stayed essentially flat versus Q4 a year ago, coming in at $170,600. Here's a good sign that prices are beginning to climb off the bottom: median prices in Q4 of 2010 rose in 78 of 152 metro areas compared to Q4 a year ago. The NAR's chief economist added the pleasant thought, "An improving housing market and job growth will go hand in hand. The housing recovery will mean faster job growth." Let's hope he's right!
>> Review of Last Week
BULLS STILL IN CHARGE... The Wall Street bulls aren't yet on a charge, but they're definitely in charge, as they sent stocks higher for another week. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average stayed above the 12,000 threshold it crossed the prior week, the broadly-based S&P 500 shot up 1.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a 3.1% gain, which would be impressive in any economic environment. Investors are feeling better about the economy, even though last week included some things which certainly would cause economic worry in more bearish settings.
We can start with Egypt, which was all over the news media, but had little visibility to the investment community. Before the market closed Friday, President Mubarek stepped down, as stocks tapered off with a 44-point gain on the day. We also had China increasing its lending rates to slow down inflation and its economy. Here on our shores tech giant Cisco surprised analysts with a disappointing outlook. Their downside guidance came because they see pressure on their profit margins in the coming year.
The Cisco situation was especially interesting in light of the fact that the main impetus for the strongly upside week came from some compelling corporate news. Walt Disney reported upside results that sent its stock to a record high. Coca-Cola met its earnings estimates on very strong volume growth. 3M boosted its quarterly dividend by 5% and told of a $7 billion share repurchase plan. A sparse week of economic indicators was highlighted by December's trade report showing imports UP 12.8% and exports UP 13.7% in the last year. We also had initial jobless claims dropping to 383,000, their lowest level since July 2008, while continuing claims fell to 3.89 million. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed an increase over the prior month.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.5%, at 12,273; the S&P 500 was UP 1.4%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,809.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Home Sales and Rate Trends
>> Market Update
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Thursday saw Existing Home Sales shoot up 12.3% in December, to an annual rate of 5.28 million, well ahead of the 4.87 million rate the consensus expected. Overall, existing home sales are off 2.9% compared to a year ago, but that's when sales were artificially boosted by the homebuyer tax credits. All regions showed sales gains in single family homes, condos and coops.
The supply of existing homes dropped to 8.1 months from 9.5 months in November. The pace of existing home sales is up 38% since July and sales are now only around 5% off the long-term trend, which has been a 5.5 million annual pace. All this has happened without government tax credit support. Smart buyers don't want to miss out on housing affordability that's at its highest level in 40 years.
Earlier in the week we saw housing starts drop 4.3% for December to a 529,000 unit annual rate. But colder temperatures and more snow than usual slowed starts in many parts of the country. Home completions actually increased for the month, while building permits shot up a strong 16.7%, to a 635,000 annual rate. We're not out of the woods yet, as permits are off 6.8% from a year ago and starts are down 8.2% compared to last year.
>> Review of Last Week
SHORT WEEK FALLS SHORT... The holiday shortened week ended its four days of trading with only the Dow ahead, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both dropping a bit. What bothered investors were some Q4 corporate earnings that fell short, plus more worries that China will hike its interest rates to cool down an overheating economy, already growing at about a 10% annual rate.
Earnings disappointments included a couple of the big financials, although three others in the sector beat expectations. Beyond that, General Electric, IBM, and Google all reported strong, better than expected Q4 earnings. GE even went so far as to forecast increasing profits in the years ahead. Apple then showed up to hit the ball out of the park with Q4 revenues up 70.5% year over year, blowing estimates out of the water with ease. But it was unfortunate to learn that Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking another indefinite leave to deal with health challenges.
The Empire State Index, which gauges manufacturing in New York, grew to 11.9 in January from 9.9 the previous month, reflecting manufacturing gains across the country. New weekly unemployment claims dropped by 37,000, putting the four-week moving average at 412,000, its lowest level since July 2008. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped to 3.86 million, their lowest number since October 2008. The Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing activity in that region was down in January, but the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index was up, better than expected.
For the week, the Dow ended up 0.7%, at 11872; the S&P 500 was off 0.8%, to 1283; and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%, ending at 2690.
Bonds were under pressure last week, with yields going up as prices headed down. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 83 basis points for the week, closing at $98.31. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, average fixed-rate mortgage rates changed little, remaining at super low levels. Tame inflation is the reason, with core consumer prices compared to December 2009 up a paltry 0.8%, their smallest yearly gain since 1958.
>> This Week’s Forecast
THE FED, PLUS OUR FAVORITE TOPIC... There's another Fed meeting this week to grab everyone's attention, but no one expects a hike in the Funds Rate quite yet. The FOMC statement will be closely examined to see how the nation's central bank views our economic recovery. The housing part of that recovery will also be covered with Wednesday's December New Home Sales, expected to be up slightly from the prior month. But Thursday's Pending Home Sales for November should be down slightly for existing homes.
The week is bookended with readings on the consumer. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence and Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment are both forecast to be improving in January. Finally, we close the week with the advanced Q4 GDP number, expected to come in at a solid 3.8% annual growth rate.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 24 – January 28
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Jan 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 53.5 52.5 Moderate
W
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 300K 290K Moderate
W
Jan 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/22 NA 2.62M Moderate
W
Jan 26 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision 1/26 0%-0.25% 0%-0.25% HIGH
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/22 408K 404K Moderate
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/22 3.835M 3.861M Moderate
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec 1.5% -0.3% Moderate
Th
Jan 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov -0.5% 3.5% Moderate
F
Jan 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.8% 2.6% Moderate
F
Jan 28 11:00 GDP Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.6% 2.1% Moderate
F
Jan 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.4% 0.4% HIGH
F
Jan 28 08:30 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Jan 73.0 72.7 Moderate
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Rumblings have begun that the Fed is sure to hike the Funds Rate in the second half of the year. But with inflation still well under control, economists do not expect any rate increases for the next few months. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 26 0%–0.25%
Mar 15 0%–0.25%
Apr 27 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 26 <1%
Mar 15 <1%
Apr 27 <1%
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Thursday saw Existing Home Sales shoot up 12.3% in December, to an annual rate of 5.28 million, well ahead of the 4.87 million rate the consensus expected. Overall, existing home sales are off 2.9% compared to a year ago, but that's when sales were artificially boosted by the homebuyer tax credits. All regions showed sales gains in single family homes, condos and coops.
The supply of existing homes dropped to 8.1 months from 9.5 months in November. The pace of existing home sales is up 38% since July and sales are now only around 5% off the long-term trend, which has been a 5.5 million annual pace. All this has happened without government tax credit support. Smart buyers don't want to miss out on housing affordability that's at its highest level in 40 years.
Earlier in the week we saw housing starts drop 4.3% for December to a 529,000 unit annual rate. But colder temperatures and more snow than usual slowed starts in many parts of the country. Home completions actually increased for the month, while building permits shot up a strong 16.7%, to a 635,000 annual rate. We're not out of the woods yet, as permits are off 6.8% from a year ago and starts are down 8.2% compared to last year.
>> Review of Last Week
SHORT WEEK FALLS SHORT... The holiday shortened week ended its four days of trading with only the Dow ahead, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both dropping a bit. What bothered investors were some Q4 corporate earnings that fell short, plus more worries that China will hike its interest rates to cool down an overheating economy, already growing at about a 10% annual rate.
Earnings disappointments included a couple of the big financials, although three others in the sector beat expectations. Beyond that, General Electric, IBM, and Google all reported strong, better than expected Q4 earnings. GE even went so far as to forecast increasing profits in the years ahead. Apple then showed up to hit the ball out of the park with Q4 revenues up 70.5% year over year, blowing estimates out of the water with ease. But it was unfortunate to learn that Apple CEO Steve Jobs is taking another indefinite leave to deal with health challenges.
The Empire State Index, which gauges manufacturing in New York, grew to 11.9 in January from 9.9 the previous month, reflecting manufacturing gains across the country. New weekly unemployment claims dropped by 37,000, putting the four-week moving average at 412,000, its lowest level since July 2008. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped to 3.86 million, their lowest number since October 2008. The Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing activity in that region was down in January, but the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index was up, better than expected.
For the week, the Dow ended up 0.7%, at 11872; the S&P 500 was off 0.8%, to 1283; and the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%, ending at 2690.
Bonds were under pressure last week, with yields going up as prices headed down. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 83 basis points for the week, closing at $98.31. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, average fixed-rate mortgage rates changed little, remaining at super low levels. Tame inflation is the reason, with core consumer prices compared to December 2009 up a paltry 0.8%, their smallest yearly gain since 1958.
>> This Week’s Forecast
THE FED, PLUS OUR FAVORITE TOPIC... There's another Fed meeting this week to grab everyone's attention, but no one expects a hike in the Funds Rate quite yet. The FOMC statement will be closely examined to see how the nation's central bank views our economic recovery. The housing part of that recovery will also be covered with Wednesday's December New Home Sales, expected to be up slightly from the prior month. But Thursday's Pending Home Sales for November should be down slightly for existing homes.
The week is bookended with readings on the consumer. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence and Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment are both forecast to be improving in January. Finally, we close the week with the advanced Q4 GDP number, expected to come in at a solid 3.8% annual growth rate.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 24 – January 28
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Jan 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 53.5 52.5 Moderate
W
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 300K 290K Moderate
W
Jan 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/22 NA 2.62M Moderate
W
Jan 26 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision 1/26 0%-0.25% 0%-0.25% HIGH
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/22 408K 404K Moderate
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/22 3.835M 3.861M Moderate
Th
Jan 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec 1.5% -0.3% Moderate
Th
Jan 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Nov -0.5% 3.5% Moderate
F
Jan 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.8% 2.6% Moderate
F
Jan 28 11:00 GDP Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.6% 2.1% Moderate
F
Jan 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.4% 0.4% HIGH
F
Jan 28 08:30 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Jan 73.0 72.7 Moderate
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Rumblings have begun that the Fed is sure to hike the Funds Rate in the second half of the year. But with inflation still well under control, economists do not expect any rate increases for the next few months. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 26 0%–0.25%
Mar 15 0%–0.25%
Apr 27 0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 26 <1%
Mar 15 <1%
Apr 27 <1%
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Things to Know About Buying Home
Things to know about buying a home now...
With the start of the new year, there's lots of talk about where home prices, mortgage rates and home sales in general are headed. If you're thinking about buying a home in the near future, here are some points to ponder:
Prices are now at all-time lows. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) housing affordability index, home prices are more affordable now than during any other time in our history going back to 1970. In addition, this time of year is especially good for buyers, because activity has slowed down. The school year in full swing and the holiday season cuts the number of active buyers, so sellers are especially motivated to make a deal.
It's a good time to buy if you plan to stay awhile. A home is still a good investment, just don't expect the house you buy today to deliver a big jump in value right away. The NAR's chief economist says, "Despite very attractive affordability conditions, a housing market recovery will likely be slow and gradual...." But if you plan to stay in your home more than a few years, your investment should beat inflation. According to Department of Labor statistics, for the ten years from 7/1/2000 to 6/30/2010, the average home increased in price 3.4% per year in the US. Inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) went up 2.4% per year in the same period.
Mortgage rates are still at historic lows. National average mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history. You may have heard about rates inching up a little lately, but "inching" is truly the operative word. National average mortgage rates are still below where they were at the start of last year. The important thing to remember is that lower rates increase your buying power by allowing you to qualify for a larger loan amount.
You're in the driver's seat. It's still a buyer's market, so many sellers are prepared to negotiate to close the sale and move on with their lives. Price and appliances for instance are all things that can be up for discussion – you just have to test the waters. But remember, when home prices stabilize and start to head up, sellers won't be in the same bargaining mood. At that point, sellers could regain the upper hand as buyers compete with each other to purchase before prices go up more.
Don't forget the tax benefits. Buying a home gives you some nice tax breaks. Interest on your mortgage and real estate taxes are both tax deductable. If you pay points to reduce your loan's interest rate, that money may also be deductible. Please consult with a tax advisor to find out how these deductions apply to your circumstances.
You want choice? Now you've got it! In many areas of the country, home buyers are feeling like kids in a candy store. There are many nice options to explore. Just don't get overwhelmed. Figure out what you want in a home, a neighborhood that's right and what you can afford to pay – then go enjoy the shopping experience.
It's easy to get started. The first thing to do is to get qualified for a mortgage. This tells you how much money a lender is willing to loan you, so you know exactly what you can afford. Being qualified also strengthens your position when making an offer because the seller knows you're a pre-approved borrower. Please contact us and we'd be happy to help you through this process.
There may never be a better time to buy. One thing's for sure, mortgage rates and home prices won't stay at these historic levels forever. When you find a home you fall in love with, don't let it get away. Remember, you want the best home, not just the best deal, and holding off on a purchase for things to improve, could lose you the home of your dreams.
Feel free to call or email us about these or any matters relating to home financing or refinancing. We're glad to talk further about any of these topics... Have a great day!
With the start of the new year, there's lots of talk about where home prices, mortgage rates and home sales in general are headed. If you're thinking about buying a home in the near future, here are some points to ponder:
Prices are now at all-time lows. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) housing affordability index, home prices are more affordable now than during any other time in our history going back to 1970. In addition, this time of year is especially good for buyers, because activity has slowed down. The school year in full swing and the holiday season cuts the number of active buyers, so sellers are especially motivated to make a deal.
It's a good time to buy if you plan to stay awhile. A home is still a good investment, just don't expect the house you buy today to deliver a big jump in value right away. The NAR's chief economist says, "Despite very attractive affordability conditions, a housing market recovery will likely be slow and gradual...." But if you plan to stay in your home more than a few years, your investment should beat inflation. According to Department of Labor statistics, for the ten years from 7/1/2000 to 6/30/2010, the average home increased in price 3.4% per year in the US. Inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) went up 2.4% per year in the same period.
Mortgage rates are still at historic lows. National average mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history. You may have heard about rates inching up a little lately, but "inching" is truly the operative word. National average mortgage rates are still below where they were at the start of last year. The important thing to remember is that lower rates increase your buying power by allowing you to qualify for a larger loan amount.
You're in the driver's seat. It's still a buyer's market, so many sellers are prepared to negotiate to close the sale and move on with their lives. Price and appliances for instance are all things that can be up for discussion – you just have to test the waters. But remember, when home prices stabilize and start to head up, sellers won't be in the same bargaining mood. At that point, sellers could regain the upper hand as buyers compete with each other to purchase before prices go up more.
Don't forget the tax benefits. Buying a home gives you some nice tax breaks. Interest on your mortgage and real estate taxes are both tax deductable. If you pay points to reduce your loan's interest rate, that money may also be deductible. Please consult with a tax advisor to find out how these deductions apply to your circumstances.
You want choice? Now you've got it! In many areas of the country, home buyers are feeling like kids in a candy store. There are many nice options to explore. Just don't get overwhelmed. Figure out what you want in a home, a neighborhood that's right and what you can afford to pay – then go enjoy the shopping experience.
It's easy to get started. The first thing to do is to get qualified for a mortgage. This tells you how much money a lender is willing to loan you, so you know exactly what you can afford. Being qualified also strengthens your position when making an offer because the seller knows you're a pre-approved borrower. Please contact us and we'd be happy to help you through this process.
There may never be a better time to buy. One thing's for sure, mortgage rates and home prices won't stay at these historic levels forever. When you find a home you fall in love with, don't let it get away. Remember, you want the best home, not just the best deal, and holding off on a purchase for things to improve, could lose you the home of your dreams.
Feel free to call or email us about these or any matters relating to home financing or refinancing. We're glad to talk further about any of these topics... Have a great day!
Monday, December 27, 2010
End of the Yaer Wrap Up
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Housing was more affordable in November than at any time in the last 40 years. So it should come as no surprise that Existing Home Sales were UP 5.6% for November, bringing them to an annual rate of 4.68 million, a tad above the expected 4.65 million rate. Sales were up for single-family homes, although down for condos and coops, and all regions of the country registered gains.
The median price increased to $170,600 in November (not seasonally adjusted) and that figure is UP 0.4% over a year ago. The FHFA index of prices for homes bought with conforming mortgages also was up 0.7% in October (seasonally-adjusted), its first gain since May. The months' supply dipped to 9.5, with a decline in overall inventories.
Thursday saw new single-family home sales UP 5.5% for November, to a 290,000 annual rate, a little short of expectations. The months' supply of new homes dropped to 8.2 from October's 8.8 level. The new homes inventory is now down to 197,000, 65.6% off its 2006 peak, and the lowest inventory level going back to 1968. The median selling price went up to $213,000, after dipping under $200,000 in October.
The median price increased to $170,600 in November (not seasonally adjusted) and that figure is UP 0.4% over a year ago. The FHFA index of prices for homes bought with conforming mortgages also was up 0.7% in October (seasonally-adjusted), its first gain since May. The months' supply dipped to 9.5, with a decline in overall inventories.
Thursday saw new single-family home sales UP 5.5% for November, to a 290,000 annual rate, a little short of expectations. The months' supply of new homes dropped to 8.2 from October's 8.8 level. The new homes inventory is now down to 197,000, 65.6% off its 2006 peak, and the lowest inventory level going back to 1968. The median selling price went up to $213,000, after dipping under $200,000 in October.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
The Economy is Stronger!
The Final Reading for 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported this morning at a 2.6% pace, slightly better than the previous reading but a bit lower than the 2.7% anticipated. Some optimistic "whisper numbers" - or gossip in the trading pits - had called for a reading north of 3%. However, we think, a deeper look into the number does raise concerns, as the gains came mostly from an upward rise in inventories, which offset a downward revision in household purchases. Now think about that - rebuilding inventory just means restocking of shelves, which would be normal ahead of the holiday season, and this particular type of gain has a "shelf life" (ahh…no pun intended, of course). At some point, consumer demand is what is needed to fuel GDP moving higher in a sustainable fashion, and that will in turn help create jobs.
Looking back at last year - for 2010 overall, the economy grew 3.7% in the 1st quarter, 1.7% in the 2nd quarter and 2.6% in the 3rd quarter. In order to create meaningful jobs and put a dent in the unemployment rate, we need to see GDP consistently above 3.5% - and it is likely GDP will be coming in less than that for most of 2011.
It will be interesting to see how the tax cut package and the remaining $450B+ dose of QE2 can help GDP. We expect to see an improved economy - but how much and how soon remains to be seen. Fortunately for the economy, inflation expectations have already ticked higher, as experts believe the Fed will meet their goal of creating inflation. (However, this is not fortunate for Bonds and home loan rates, as we've all been experiencing in recent weeks.) Yet this story isn't over - we need to see how inflation, GDP and jobs fare over the next couple months, which will give us a much better idea of the strength of the economy, and how soon it might be self sustaining, free from government support.
Good news from the housing sector - Existing Home Sales numbers arrived for November at 4.68M, better than expectations, as well as a nice pick up from October's numbers of 4.43M. Additionally, the inventory of unsold homes declined to a 9.5 month supply, a good drop from the prior month's 10.5 month supply. Encouraging news, as it shows that sidelined buyers are starting to dip their toes in the water - and with rates still relatively low, combined with affordable home prices, it remains an incredible time to buy.
Looking back at last year - for 2010 overall, the economy grew 3.7% in the 1st quarter, 1.7% in the 2nd quarter and 2.6% in the 3rd quarter. In order to create meaningful jobs and put a dent in the unemployment rate, we need to see GDP consistently above 3.5% - and it is likely GDP will be coming in less than that for most of 2011.
It will be interesting to see how the tax cut package and the remaining $450B+ dose of QE2 can help GDP. We expect to see an improved economy - but how much and how soon remains to be seen. Fortunately for the economy, inflation expectations have already ticked higher, as experts believe the Fed will meet their goal of creating inflation. (However, this is not fortunate for Bonds and home loan rates, as we've all been experiencing in recent weeks.) Yet this story isn't over - we need to see how inflation, GDP and jobs fare over the next couple months, which will give us a much better idea of the strength of the economy, and how soon it might be self sustaining, free from government support.
Good news from the housing sector - Existing Home Sales numbers arrived for November at 4.68M, better than expectations, as well as a nice pick up from October's numbers of 4.43M. Additionally, the inventory of unsold homes declined to a 9.5 month supply, a good drop from the prior month's 10.5 month supply. Encouraging news, as it shows that sidelined buyers are starting to dip their toes in the water - and with rates still relatively low, combined with affordable home prices, it remains an incredible time to buy.
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